i m hoping it turns back out to sea. if it stays over water and hits you guys it really gona be bad
MC said
Sep 7, 2023
Canadian Poncho wrote:
Not looking good for us.
IMHO too soon to worry here, though there is some concern, for sure.
The fact that he has 'CAT 5' displayed prominently on the youtube preview indicates that he wants us to click on it out of fear. Let's see what happens. It's hurricane season, so of course we are on high alert as usual.
Canadian Poncho said
Sep 7, 2023
Ryan's channel is fantastic (which could explain why he has 1.58 million subscribers). I watch him regularily and he is a very talented meteorologist. This hurricane will in fact be a Cat 5 likely by Sunday. There's zero wind shear in that part of the ocean right now so that storm has everything it needs to strengthen. Obviously it won't be that strong when (if) it reaches us. However from what I can tell the waters near us are actually a touch warmer than they were when Fiona arrived last September. It all depends on what the Jetstream is going to do in the next few days as to whether we take a direct hit or not.
Ryan's channel is fantastic (which could explain why he has 1.58 million subscribers). I watch him regularily and he is a very talented meteorologist. This hurricane will in fact be a Cat 5 likely by Sunday. There's zero wind shear in that part of the ocean right now so that storm has everything it needs to strengthen. Obviously it won't be that strong when (if) it reaches us. However from what I can tell the waters near us are actually a touch warmer than they were when Fiona arrived last September. It all depends on what the Jetstream is going to do in the next few days as to whether we take a direct hit or not.
I'm sure that he knows more about it than all of us put together, and I'm not saying that it's not going to happen. I just find that hurricane talk tends to be a bit sensationalistic. Didn't mean to take away from the point you were trying to make.
IIRC, Fiona wasn't hyped up to be the worst hurricane before it hit, but IMHO the damage was the worst that hit the Maritimes in my memory. Some storms I recall in the past were really hyped up but didn't amount to much.
Let's hope that this one is overhyped...
And to be clear, I'm talking about the effect on the Maritimes, not its intensity or status as a major, dangerous storm...
-- Edited by MC on Thursday 7th of September 2023 09:14:51 PM
MC said
Sep 8, 2023
Canadian Poncho wrote:
Not click bait now...
FWIW, I wasn't saying that it wouldn't develop into a cat 5, I was saying that he was using the fact that it was approaching cat 5 to draw attention to his video. Maybe he'll have 2 million subscribers before the year's out.
Enough said, I should go back to not commenting much... I'm sure it will make some people much happier. lol
Canadian Poncho said
Sep 8, 2023
I wouldn't post the video here if the guy was a crackpot. Even CBC uses headlines to attract clicks. Ryan does this for a living and has a large staff to produce his videos and he needs those clicks to generate income however there was nothing deceptive at all with his title. This guy donates hundreds of thousands of dollars that he earns to storm victims. It wouldn't have hurt to watch the video first and then form an opinion. Another member poo poo'd a video of his that I posted last winter warning about a large amount of snow coming to their area for the same reason. Guess what?
DonSSDD said
Sep 8, 2023
Weather is an educated guess based on a database of history, so you can be wrong but usually you are still say say-60-100% correct. There are so many things hard to predict about hurricanes, water temperatures where the storm travels, other highs and lows moving in that push them around and affect the wind speed and hurricane travel direction. I hate all the hype of everything and in many cases the fear thrown in plus fake news (WD40 got banned in Canada if you read that thread!! It did not).
Hurricanes require anyone in their path to get prepared and all the warning possible is useful if you are going to be in the path but they change direction at the last minute and all the way along their path and the wind speed changes and the forward motion changes. I remember hurricane Juan, at 11:00pm it was supposed to hit Mahone Bay, an hour or so later it hit Halifax and missed Mahone Bay.
So at midnight last night, there was just hurricane Lee on the map, now we have this new hurricane at 6am, thats how these things go, very unpredictable, but be prepared. Right now Lee could hit Southern Florida, maybe follow Andrews path and hit Toronto, Nfld, or just about anywhere inside that triangle.
-- Edited by DonSSDD on Friday 8th of September 2023 05:21:13 AM
I wouldn't post the video here if the guy was a crackpot. Even CBC uses headlines to attract clicks. Ryan does this for a living and has a large staff to produce his videos and he needs those clicks to generate income however there was nothing deceptive at all with his title. This guy donates hundreds of thousands of dollars that he earns to storm victims. It wouldn't have hurt to watch the video first and then form an opinion. Another member poo poo'd a video of his that I posted last winter warning about a large amount of snow coming to their area for the same reason. Guess what?
Point taken, Todd.
MC said
Sep 8, 2023
DonSSDD wrote:
Weather is an educated guess based on a database of history, so you can be wrong but usually you are still say say-60-100% correct. There are so many things hard to predict about hurricanes, water temperatures where the storm travels, other highs and lows moving in that push them around and affect the wind speed and hurricane travel direction. I hate all the hype of everything and in many cases the fear thrown in plus fake news (WD40 got banned in Canada if you read that thread!! It did not).
Hurricanes require anyone in their path to get prepared and all the warning possible is useful if you are going to be in the path but they change direction at the last minute and all the way along their path and the wind speed changes and the forward motion changes. I remember hurricane Juan, at 11:00pm it was supposed to hit Mahone Bay, an hour or so later it hit Halifax and missed Mahone Bay.
So at midnight last night, there was just hurricane Lee on the map, now we have this new hurricane at 6am, thats how these things go, very unpredictable, but be prepared. Right now Lee could hit Southern Florida, maybe follow Andrews path and hit Toronto, Nfld, or just about anywhere inside that triangle.
Well said, DonSSDD. That's the point I was trying to get across, but wasn't able to so effectively.
There are so many factors affecting weather in general and hurricanes specifically, it's hard to say 7 days out what may or may not happen. Heck there are numerous weather prediction models that often don't agree, so when somebody tells me that my hometown is going to be wrecked by a hurricane I have to take it with a grain of salt. There was a guy on another forum who was convinced from the onset of Lee that Halifax was going to get a direct hit by a cat 5...
As you say, they are unpredictable and I've seen too many where doom and gloom was predicted and not much happened, or when we were led to believe that it was just going to be a mild hurricane or tropical storm and the damage was devastating. Juan was a good example. Another good one is Dorian, which was a cat 5 at one point, was about to hit Halifax as a cat 2, but went extratropical just as it was about to hit and ended up being somewhat tame (it did bring a construction crane down, but engineering analysis revealed that it was installed improperly - other cranes in the city were fine).
So at this point, my mantra is always be prepared for the worst, but I keep my anxiety in check because you don't know what will happen until it actually hits... if it actually does hit.
Not meaning to poopoo Todd's internet meteorologist, but there is so much out there now that's geared to get our attention through fear, I tend to be over-skeptical about anybody who is telling us that a hurricane will hit us a week in advance. I'm sure this guy is very good, or Todd wouldn't have posted it, and I apologize to him for casting doubt.
Let's see what happens. It's always interesting to speculate, and then see what happens. For us east-coasters it's a little more personal, as we have a lot on the line with each one of these storms, but I can understand the interest nonetheless. Todd's photos of Fiona damage were devastating, so I can understand the level of concern - nobody wants to go through that again.
Canadian Poncho said
Sep 8, 2023
I truly hope it amounts to nothing. I've been involved in the planning of a large yearly event here in eastern PEI that takes place next weekend. Over 120 vendors from NB, PEI and NS have already paid, newpaper ads already gone to press etc. So now you can tell why I'm a bit touchy lol The phone calls and emails from people asking whether we are going ahead, cancelling and postponing have been going on all day. They actually started last week..
"Unfortunately, with so many factors to consider, we likely will not know until early next week where Lee may eventually be heading.
Something to keep in mind next week is that while we will all be focused on the track of the centre of Lee, this will likely be a large storm and its impacts may expand hundreds of kilometres from the centre.
What we do know is that while Lee is currently a powerful major hurricane, the storm will begin to weaken as it tracks northwards next week into waters that are below the 26.5 C threshold tropical cyclones need to maintain strength. "
MC said
Sep 10, 2023
Latest Lee update: Currently a category 2 (after having risen in intensity to a 5), expected to rise again to a 4 but then weaken to a category 1 by Friday
Looks like I'll be picking the apples and tomatoes early this year. Gas cans are filled, generator ready... It looks like a slow moving storm so we will likely get a lot of rain.
Since the center will be west of us we'll be getting the strongest winds too.
MC said
Sep 13, 2023
Did you have to cancel your event, Todd?
The storm is quite large, and it looks like all of the Maritimes will be affected in one way or another. It does look like it may be less severe overall than speculated upon last week, though, but there's still a lot of time for things to change for the worse.
ashmore said
Sep 13, 2023
We have been very lucky here in the western side of the with the last few hurricanes and rain events pretty much missing us. It looks like the tract of this one has the center going right over me.
Canadian Poncho said
Sep 13, 2023
We postponed for a week and low and behold there's another storm that may hit that weekend. Hopefully not!
________________________________________________
Did you have to cancel your event, Todd?
The storm is quite large, and it looks like all of the Maritimes will be affected in one way or another. It does look like it may be less severe overall than speculated upon last week, though, but there's still a lot of time for things to change for the worse.
Canadian Poncho said
Sep 13, 2023
This one reminds me a bit like Dorion. We had a few trees down from that one and was without power for about 5 days.
Canadian Poncho said
Sep 13, 2023
Latest model run analysis from another weather geek I follow:
Confidence is growing in determining Lee's eventual path, models are in better agreement this evening. As expected, Lee has weakened to a Cat 2, still south of Bermuda. At present, the northern most bands of Lee are approaching Bermuda with their first rainshowers and gusty winds. They can expect this trend to continue and increase in frequency and intensity. For us, the models have once again nudged Lee a bit further east than previous runs. The Euro now has the center making landfall over or very near Saint John, then continuing northeast to pass near Moncton then just north of PEI's northern tip. This would put the bulk of the rainfall over NB, with strong gusts of wind from the south over the island. The GFS is close to this, pushing Lee up the Bay of Funday and continuing ENE to cross central PEI. With either scenario I don't expect a large amount of rain for the island, also central and eastern Nova Scotia. The bulk of the rain with this system will be on it's western flank, particularly over western NB and Maine. At present, coastal areas of Maine from roughly Bar Harbour eastward are under a tropical storm watch, while offshore in the Gulf of Maine there exists a hurricane watch. I'm still thinking the far western end of Nova Scotia, especially the Yarmouth and Digby areas, will fare the worst. Significant impacts could also be felt along NB's Fundy coast. There's also a risk of a storm surge of some degree in the Bay of Fundy itself, given Lee's main circulation pushing into the western end of the bay and the bay itself being somewhat cone shaped, amplifying the surge of water moving eastward. It is important to note that Lee's already expansive wind field will grow even larger, and while it will be quickly weakening by time of landfall, strong gusts will extend far out from the center. Presently, Lee is demonstrating 100 knot winds 150 km from it's center, an impressive feat. Still too early to determine eventual wind strength here but as Brent mentioned earlier, this will likely be on par with a healthy winter nor'easter. The difference though, will be full foliaged trees and a thawed, rain soaked ground. I think by tomorrow models will have an even better grip on Lee's eventual effects here.
The next information statement will be issued at 3:00 AM ADT. For Hurricane Lee - this is a Saturday event for the strongest impacts with lingering weaker conditions on Sunday. Approaching category-1 hurricane becoming post-tropical at landfall in eastern Maine or southern New Brunswick. 1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 p.m. ADT. Location: 27.9 degrees North 67.7 degrees West. About 575 km south-southwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds: 165 kilometres per hour. Present movement: North-northwest around 17 kilometres per hour. Minimum central pressure: 954 millibars. 2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary. Hurricane Lee is now on its northward course toward the Maritime provinces and the state of Maine. This hurricane is quite large and is expected to grow in size as it approaches. On the other hand the intensity (which is based on the peak winds in the storm) will be decreasing and is expected to be just below hurricane status when it is passing just west of Yarmouth Saturday afternoon. This timing and location will likely change over the next 3 days but that is the official most likely scenario at this stage. The centre of Lee could make landfall anywhere from Downeast Maine to western Nova Scotia as a strong tropical storm or post-tropical low. Our latest assessment is that western Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick stand to see the most wind while western New Brunswick northward into parts of the Bas-St-Laurent and Gaspesie regions of Quebec are at risk of the heaviest rainfall. High waves and elevated water levels will be more widespread due to the large size of the storm - the most impacted areas likely covering much of the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia and the Fundy coast of New Brunswick. NOTE: In addition to Lee, the Maritime provinces may experience bands of training downpours travelling from southwest to northeast. These bands are notoriously difficult to predict but it is important to understand there is a flooding risk with these bands well before the arrival of Lee. These complex effects are indirectly related to the hurricane. Additional rainfall from Lee itself could exacerbate the risk of flooding. a. Wind. Breakdown of winds and impacts will appear here in later bulletins. Most likely region for worst impacts: western Nova Scotia as well as Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County region of New Brunswick. Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches will be posted for some areas at midnight tonight for possible gusts to 120 km/h (hurricane-force) Saturday. b. Rainfall. Breakdown of rainfall and impacts will appear here in later bulletins. Most likely region for heaviest rain: western New Brunswick and northward into Quebec. c. Surge/Waves. Breakdown of surge/waves and impacts will appear here in later bulletins. Most likely region for worst impacts: Atlantic coastal mainland Nova Scotia and areas around the Bay of Fundy. 3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary. Greatest waves and winds expected around the Bay of Fundy, Gulf of Maine and southwest Maritimes marine district. Forecaster: Fogarty/Clements
DonSSDD said
Sep 15, 2023
This is a screenshot from my app for government of canada weather, ever seen anything like it for warnings?
Hurricane Lee will be moving into western Nova Scotia / southern New Brunswick Saturday with heavy rains, high winds, and large waves, then weakening Saturday night with lingering conditions on Sunday.
Intensity/classification: Category-1 hurricane transitioning into into a strong post-tropical low while making landfall anywhere from Grand Manan Island New Brunswick to Shelburne County Nova Scotia Saturday evening.
1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 a.m. ADT.
Location: 35.2 degrees North 67.0 degrees West.
About 381 km northwest of Bermuda.
Maximum sustained winds: 140 kilometres per hour.
Present movement: North-northeast around 30 kilometres per hour.
Minimum central pressure: 962 millibars.
2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County in New Brunswick and Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne, and Queens Counties in Nova Scotia. These are now being extended to include Lunenburg County and all of Halifax County.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the New Brunswick Fundy Coast. Most of mainland Nova Scotia is under a Tropical Storm Warning except northern Nova Scotia and Colchester County north and south of Truro. This may be expanded today.
Rainfall and wind warnings are in effect for parts of mainland Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick. These will likely be expanded today.
The circulation of Hurricane Lee will be quite broad as it reaches our region so impacts will occur not only near the track but up to 300 km or more away from it.
a. Wind.
Most likely region for worst impacts: western and central Nova Scotia, including Halifax County and Halifax County West, as well as Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County region of New Brunswick. Areas under the tropical storm warning could see sustained winds of 70 km/h with gusts of 90 to 100 km/h possible. Areas under the hurricane watch will likely see the strongest winds, with potential gusts of 120 km/h. These winds would typically result in some tree damage and utility interruptions. More impact details coming this afternoon.
b. Rainfall.
Heaviest rainfall threat has shifted eastward a bit and now runs through central New Brunswick and northward into the Gaspe region and the Quebec Lower North Shore out to Blanc-Sablon. The risk of heavy rains is decreasing (but still exists) for the Rimouski and Temiscouata area.
Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm are possible, especially in areas to the left of the track. NOTE: Western Nova Scotia and the Annapolis Valley flooding risk has increased - there could be heavy amounts in the vicinity of the track itself with indications of possibly 75 mm directly from Lee. This combined with the rain that fell there Thursday increases the vulnerability to further flooding in that area.
c. Surge/Waves.
High waves and elevated water levels will be widespread due to the large size of the storm - the most impacted areas are expected to cover much of the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia and to a much lesser extent, the Fundy coast of New Brunswick. Wave conditions will also become rough in areas in the western Gulf of St Lawrence / western Northumberland Strait but should remain below warning criteria. This includes all of the east coast of New Brunswick.
For Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia breaking waves of 4-6 metres (15 to 20 feet) are likely. Elevated water levels (storm surge) combined with waves will result in coastal flooding during the high tide late morning to noon Saturday from Shelburne County to eastern Halifax County then again during the high tide late Saturday evening. Water levels up to 1.5 metre (5 feet) above high tide is possible. Storm surge warnings have now been issued from Shelburne County eastward to Guysborough County.
3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
Greatest waves and winds expected around the Bay of Fundy, Gulf of Maine and southwest Maritimes marine district. Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for southwestern waters near the track. Storm or gale warnings are in effect for most remaining waters. Significant wave heights of around 15 meters or so are possible for some offshore waters south of Nova Scotia.
Forecaster: Roch/March
Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.
i m hoping it turns back out to sea. if it stays over water and hits you guys it really gona be bad
IMHO too soon to worry here, though there is some concern, for sure.
The fact that he has 'CAT 5' displayed prominently on the youtube preview indicates that he wants us to click on it out of fear. Let's see what happens. It's hurricane season, so of course we are on high alert as usual.
Not click bait now...
I'm sure that he knows more about it than all of us put together, and I'm not saying that it's not going to happen. I just find that hurricane talk tends to be a bit sensationalistic. Didn't mean to take away from the point you were trying to make.
IIRC, Fiona wasn't hyped up to be the worst hurricane before it hit, but IMHO the damage was the worst that hit the Maritimes in my memory. Some storms I recall in the past were really hyped up but didn't amount to much.
Let's hope that this one is overhyped...
And to be clear, I'm talking about the effect on the Maritimes, not its intensity or status as a major, dangerous storm...
-- Edited by MC on Thursday 7th of September 2023 09:14:51 PM
FWIW, I wasn't saying that it wouldn't develop into a cat 5, I was saying that he was using the fact that it was approaching cat 5 to draw attention to his video. Maybe he'll have 2 million subscribers before the year's out.
Enough said, I should go back to not commenting much... I'm sure it will make some people much happier. lol
I wouldn't post the video here if the guy was a crackpot. Even CBC uses headlines to attract clicks. Ryan does this for a living and has a large staff to produce his videos and he needs those clicks to generate income however there was nothing deceptive at all with his title. This guy donates hundreds of thousands of dollars that he earns to storm victims. It wouldn't have hurt to watch the video first and then form an opinion. Another member poo poo'd a video of his that I posted last winter warning about a large amount of snow coming to their area for the same reason. Guess what?
Weather is an educated guess based on a database of history, so you can be wrong but usually you are still say say-60-100% correct. There are so many things hard to predict about hurricanes, water temperatures where the storm travels, other highs and lows moving in that push them around and affect the wind speed and hurricane travel direction.
I hate all the hype of everything and in many cases the fear thrown in plus fake news (WD40 got banned in Canada if you read that thread!! It did not).
Hurricanes require anyone in their path to get prepared and all the warning possible is useful if you are going to be in the path but they change direction at the last minute and all the way along their path and the wind speed changes and the forward motion changes. I remember hurricane Juan, at 11:00pm it was supposed to hit Mahone Bay, an hour or so later it hit Halifax and missed Mahone Bay.
So at midnight last night, there was just hurricane Lee on the map, now we have this new hurricane at 6am, thats how these things go, very unpredictable, but be prepared.
Right now Lee could hit Southern Florida, maybe follow Andrews path and hit Toronto, Nfld, or just about anywhere inside that triangle.
-- Edited by DonSSDD on Friday 8th of September 2023 05:21:13 AM
Point taken, Todd.
Well said, DonSSDD. That's the point I was trying to get across, but wasn't able to so effectively.
There are so many factors affecting weather in general and hurricanes specifically, it's hard to say 7 days out what may or may not happen. Heck there are numerous weather prediction models that often don't agree, so when somebody tells me that my hometown is going to be wrecked by a hurricane I have to take it with a grain of salt. There was a guy on another forum who was convinced from the onset of Lee that Halifax was going to get a direct hit by a cat 5...
As you say, they are unpredictable and I've seen too many where doom and gloom was predicted and not much happened, or when we were led to believe that it was just going to be a mild hurricane or tropical storm and the damage was devastating. Juan was a good example. Another good one is Dorian, which was a cat 5 at one point, was about to hit Halifax as a cat 2, but went extratropical just as it was about to hit and ended up being somewhat tame (it did bring a construction crane down, but engineering analysis revealed that it was installed improperly - other cranes in the city were fine).
So at this point, my mantra is always be prepared for the worst, but I keep my anxiety in check because you don't know what will happen until it actually hits... if it actually does hit.
Not meaning to poopoo Todd's internet meteorologist, but there is so much out there now that's geared to get our attention through fear, I tend to be over-skeptical about anybody who is telling us that a hurricane will hit us a week in advance. I'm sure this guy is very good, or Todd wouldn't have posted it, and I apologize to him for casting doubt.
Let's see what happens. It's always interesting to speculate, and then see what happens. For us east-coasters it's a little more personal, as we have a lot on the line with each one of these storms, but I can understand the interest nonetheless. Todd's photos of Fiona damage were devastating, so I can understand the level of concern - nobody wants to go through that again.
I truly hope it amounts to nothing. I've been involved in the planning of a large yearly event here in eastern PEI that takes place next weekend. Over 120 vendors from NB, PEI and NS have already paid, newpaper ads already gone to press etc. So now you can tell why I'm a bit touchy lol
The phone calls and emails from people asking whether we are going ahead, cancelling and postponing have been going on all day. They actually started last week..
Interesting insight on the path of Lee:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/weather-ryan-snoddon-hurricane-lee-1.6960749
"Unfortunately, with so many factors to consider, we likely will not know until early next week where Lee may eventually be heading.
Something to keep in mind next week is that while we will all be focused on the track of the centre of Lee, this will likely be a large storm and its impacts may expand hundreds of kilometres from the centre.
What we do know is that while Lee is currently a powerful major hurricane, the storm will begin to weaken as it tracks northwards next week into waters that are below the 26.5 C threshold tropical cyclones need to maintain strength. "
Latest Lee update: Currently a category 2 (after having risen in intensity to a 5), expected to rise again to a 4 but then weaken to a category 1 by Friday
Current projection, it can still wobble in or out or gain or lose wind speed, but well be pretty sure of getting a bad storm of some sort.
Since the center will be west of us we'll be getting the strongest winds too.
Did you have to cancel your event, Todd?
The storm is quite large, and it looks like all of the Maritimes will be affected in one way or another. It does look like it may be less severe overall than speculated upon last week, though, but there's still a lot of time for things to change for the worse.
Latest model run analysis from another weather geek I follow:
Confidence is growing in determining Lee's eventual path, models are in better agreement this evening. As expected, Lee has weakened to a Cat 2, still south of Bermuda. At present, the northern most bands of Lee are approaching Bermuda with their first rainshowers and gusty winds. They can expect this trend to continue and increase in frequency and intensity. For us, the models have once again nudged Lee a bit further east than previous runs. The Euro now has the center making landfall over or very near Saint John, then continuing northeast to pass near Moncton then just north of PEI's northern tip. This would put the bulk of the rainfall over NB, with strong gusts of wind from the south over the island. The GFS is close to this, pushing Lee up the Bay of Funday and continuing ENE to cross central PEI. With either scenario I don't expect a large amount of rain for the island, also central and eastern Nova Scotia. The bulk of the rain with this system will be on it's western flank, particularly over western NB and Maine. At present, coastal areas of Maine from roughly Bar Harbour eastward are under a tropical storm watch, while offshore in the Gulf of Maine there exists a hurricane watch. I'm still thinking the far western end of Nova Scotia, especially the Yarmouth and Digby areas, will fare the worst. Significant impacts could also be felt along NB's Fundy coast. There's also a risk of a storm surge of some degree in the Bay of Fundy itself, given Lee's main circulation pushing into the western end of the bay and the bay itself being somewhat cone shaped, amplifying the surge of water moving eastward. It is important to note that Lee's already expansive wind field will grow even larger, and while it will be quickly weakening by time of landfall, strong gusts will extend far out from the center. Presently, Lee is demonstrating 100 knot winds 150 km from it's center, an impressive feat. Still too early to determine eventual wind strength here but as Brent mentioned earlier, this will likely be on par with a healthy winter nor'easter. The difference though, will be full foliaged trees and a thawed, rain soaked ground. I think by tomorrow models will have an even better grip on Lee's eventual effects here.
From the suits and ties,
Charlottetown, PE - 7 Day Forecast - Environment Canada (weather.gc.ca)
9:51 PM ADT Wednesday 13 September 2023
The next information statement will be issued at 3:00 AM ADT. For Hurricane Lee - this is a Saturday event for the strongest impacts with lingering weaker conditions on Sunday. Approaching category-1 hurricane becoming post-tropical at landfall in eastern Maine or southern New Brunswick. 1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 p.m. ADT. Location: 27.9 degrees North 67.7 degrees West. About 575 km south-southwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds: 165 kilometres per hour. Present movement: North-northwest around 17 kilometres per hour. Minimum central pressure: 954 millibars. 2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary. Hurricane Lee is now on its northward course toward the Maritime provinces and the state of Maine. This hurricane is quite large and is expected to grow in size as it approaches. On the other hand the intensity (which is based on the peak winds in the storm) will be decreasing and is expected to be just below hurricane status when it is passing just west of Yarmouth Saturday afternoon. This timing and location will likely change over the next 3 days but that is the official most likely scenario at this stage. The centre of Lee could make landfall anywhere from Downeast Maine to western Nova Scotia as a strong tropical storm or post-tropical low. Our latest assessment is that western Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick stand to see the most wind while western New Brunswick northward into parts of the Bas-St-Laurent and Gaspesie regions of Quebec are at risk of the heaviest rainfall. High waves and elevated water levels will be more widespread due to the large size of the storm - the most impacted areas likely covering much of the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia and the Fundy coast of New Brunswick. NOTE: In addition to Lee, the Maritime provinces may experience bands of training downpours travelling from southwest to northeast. These bands are notoriously difficult to predict but it is important to understand there is a flooding risk with these bands well before the arrival of Lee. These complex effects are indirectly related to the hurricane. Additional rainfall from Lee itself could exacerbate the risk of flooding. a. Wind. Breakdown of winds and impacts will appear here in later bulletins. Most likely region for worst impacts: western Nova Scotia as well as Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County region of New Brunswick. Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches will be posted for some areas at midnight tonight for possible gusts to 120 km/h (hurricane-force) Saturday. b. Rainfall. Breakdown of rainfall and impacts will appear here in later bulletins. Most likely region for heaviest rain: western New Brunswick and northward into Quebec. c. Surge/Waves. Breakdown of surge/waves and impacts will appear here in later bulletins. Most likely region for worst impacts: Atlantic coastal mainland Nova Scotia and areas around the Bay of Fundy. 3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary. Greatest waves and winds expected around the Bay of Fundy, Gulf of Maine and southwest Maritimes marine district. Forecaster: Fogarty/Clements
This is a screenshot from my app for government of canada weather, ever seen anything like it for warnings?
Hurricane Lee will be moving into western Nova Scotia / southern New Brunswick Saturday with heavy rains, high winds, and large waves, then weakening Saturday night with lingering conditions on Sunday.
Intensity/classification: Category-1 hurricane transitioning into into a strong post-tropical low while making landfall anywhere from Grand Manan Island New Brunswick to Shelburne County Nova Scotia Saturday evening.
1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 a.m. ADT.
Location: 35.2 degrees North 67.0 degrees West.
About 381 km northwest of Bermuda.
Maximum sustained winds: 140 kilometres per hour.
Present movement: North-northeast around 30 kilometres per hour.
Minimum central pressure: 962 millibars.
2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County in New Brunswick and Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne, and Queens Counties in Nova Scotia. These are now being extended to include Lunenburg County and all of Halifax County.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the New Brunswick Fundy Coast. Most of mainland Nova Scotia is under a Tropical Storm Warning except northern Nova Scotia and Colchester County north and south of Truro. This may be expanded today.
Rainfall and wind warnings are in effect for parts of mainland Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick. These will likely be expanded today.
The circulation of Hurricane Lee will be quite broad as it reaches our region so impacts will occur not only near the track but up to 300 km or more away from it.
a. Wind.
Most likely region for worst impacts: western and central Nova Scotia, including Halifax County and Halifax County West, as well as Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County region of New Brunswick. Areas under the tropical storm warning could see sustained winds of 70 km/h with gusts of 90 to 100 km/h possible. Areas under the hurricane watch will likely see the strongest winds, with potential gusts of 120 km/h. These winds would typically result in some tree damage and utility interruptions. More impact details coming this afternoon.
b. Rainfall.
Heaviest rainfall threat has shifted eastward a bit and now runs through central New Brunswick and northward into the Gaspe region and the Quebec Lower North Shore out to Blanc-Sablon. The risk of heavy rains is decreasing (but still exists) for the Rimouski and Temiscouata area.
Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm are possible, especially in areas to the left of the track. NOTE: Western Nova Scotia and the Annapolis Valley flooding risk has increased - there could be heavy amounts in the vicinity of the track itself with indications of possibly 75 mm directly from Lee. This combined with the rain that fell there Thursday increases the vulnerability to further flooding in that area.
c. Surge/Waves.
High waves and elevated water levels will be widespread due to the large size of the storm - the most impacted areas are expected to cover much of the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia and to a much lesser extent, the Fundy coast of New Brunswick. Wave conditions will also become rough in areas in the western Gulf of St Lawrence / western Northumberland Strait but should remain below warning criteria. This includes all of the east coast of New Brunswick.
For Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia breaking waves of 4-6 metres (15 to 20 feet) are likely. Elevated water levels (storm surge) combined with waves will result in coastal flooding during the high tide late morning to noon Saturday from Shelburne County to eastern Halifax County then again during the high tide late Saturday evening. Water levels up to 1.5 metre (5 feet) above high tide is possible. Storm surge warnings have now been issued from Shelburne County eastward to Guysborough County.
3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
Greatest waves and winds expected around the Bay of Fundy, Gulf of Maine and southwest Maritimes marine district. Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for southwestern waters near the track. Storm or gale warnings are in effect for most remaining waters. Significant wave heights of around 15 meters or so are possible for some offshore waters south of Nova Scotia.
Forecaster: Roch/March
Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.
In effect for:
Lunenburg County