Could be a bit gusty if this track remains:
weather.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html

-- Edited by Canadian Poncho on Tuesday 3rd of September 2019 06:24:28 PM

Keeping an eye on it.  The way things go with these storms, you won't know what it's really going to do until just before it hits, as there is so much variability with weather patterns, etc.

As it looks, it could be a significant hit to the eastern part of NS and southern NL.  If it follows the forecasted track, Halifax will get a brush but at least it will be on the slower side for winds (counterclockwise rotation and the speed at which the storm is moving means that the northwest side of the storm will typically have less wind impact than the southeast side).

Curiously, the forecast track is showing 130 km/h winds, which is in category 1 range, but is showing the storm as a post-tropical storm - presumably because it will be less organized at that point.  But heck, it can still pack a wallop at those wind speeds.

We'll see what happens...

-- Edited by MC on Wednesday 4th of September 2019 06:24:52 AM

It's really looking like a direct hit from us late Saturday into Sunday morning. It will be either a Cat 1 hurricane or tropical storm. Some models showing sustained winds of 120kmh and gusts to 150kmh. I'm filling the generator and all the gas cans today. I suspect a multi day power outage if we do get this. The trees are still covered in leaves and there's a LOT of power lines near them here. I hate it when these storms hit at night as you can't see what's happening!

They keep adjusting the track and wind speed based on mathematical modeling.  This morning they had upped the wind speed prediction to 150, but now it looks like it's back to 140.  Past experience tells me we won't know what it's going to do until it does it.  Dorian was predicted to smash into the coast of Florida as a cat 4 or 5, but instead it turned north.  These storms are affected by complex weather patterns that are really hard to predict, so nobody knows until it happens, really.  But... it does look like we will be impacted by it... could be worse, could be better.  We'll see what happens and keep you guys informed - but you may have to wait until we get our power back!

Current trajectory:

Current Tropical Cyclone statement:

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Based on the latest forecast guidance, the most likely track projection brings Hurricane Dorian south of the Maritimes on Saturday, pushing through eastern Nova Scotia late in the day, and then over western Newfoundland by Sunday morning. Severe winds and rainfall will have major impacts for southeastern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Western Newfoundland, and the Quebec Lower North Shore. There will also be large waves, especially for the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Finally, there is a chance that storm surge may affect parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

a. Wind.

Most regions will experience some tropical storm force winds. Near and to the south of the forecast track, winds should reach hurricane force. As the storm moves across Nova Scotia, there is a possibility of hurricane force northwesterlies behind it. Wind impacts will likely be enhanced by foliage on the trees, enhancing
tree damage and tree falls, and potentially causing power outages.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall will be significant, especially north and west of Dorian's track, where heavy rainfall could lead to flooding. The highest rainfall amounts are likely for Nova Scotia and the Gulf of St. Lawrence region. Forecast guidance is suggesting widespread amounts in excess of 50 mm, but north and west of Dorian, a swath of more than 100 mm is likely. Some districts have received large quantities of rain from Post-tropical Storm Erin last week, and with the soil moisture still very high from Erin, excessive runoff may exacerbate the flooding potential.

c. Surge/Waves.

There will also be some rough and pounding surf, especially for parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large waves will reach the Southwestern Shore of Nova Scotia on Saturday and build to near 10 metres over the Eastern Shore Saturday night. These waves will likely reach southern Newfoundland by Sunday morning. Waves near or higher than 5 metres will impact north facing coasts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Note that waves will break higher along some of the coastlines, and dangerous rip currents are likely. Please exercise extreme caution. Storm surge is possible, mainly for parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland, but it is too early to be specific about significant impacts, if any.

Changed again...

Filled the cars last night - no power, no gas pumps... good on you Todd.

I'm just looking out the window seeing the first cloud bands from the hurricane cross the otherwise clear sky...

Ugh.

"2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for central and eastern Nova Scotia, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for southwestern Newfoundland.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for western Nova Scotia, southeastern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands and northwestern Newfoundland.

According to the latest forecast guidance, the most likely track projection brings Hurricane Dorian south of the Maritimes on Saturday, passing near or over Halifax Nova Scotia Saturday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of St. Lawrence waters or western Newfoundland by Sunday morning.

Severe winds and torrential rain will have major impacts for southeastern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Western Newfoundland, and the Quebec Lower North Shore, and the Magdalen Islands. Large waves are expected for the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and for eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Finally, storm surge, combined with large waves and pounding surf, may give flooding for parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, and the Magdalen Islands.

a. Wind.

Most regions will experience tropical storm force winds of 90 to 110 km/h, beginning over southwestern Nova Scotia Saturday morning, in the afternoon over eastern Nova Scotia, and towards evening for Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands, and southwestern Newfoundland. Near and to the south of the forecast track, winds will reach hurricane force of 120 km/h or more. Behind the storm, there is a possibility of storm to hurricane force northwesterlies. Wind impacts will likely be enhanced by foliage on the trees, causing broken branches and tree falls, resulting in power outages, blocking of roads, and other type of damages.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for Eastern Nova Scotia and Eastern Prince Edward Island. Wind warnings are in effect for Southwestern Nova Scotia, Western Prince Edward Island, and the Magdalen Islands.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall will be a major factor as torrential rain may lead to flooding. The highest rainfall amounts are expected over Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and the Magdalen Island where 50 to 100 mm are expected. Forecast guidance is also suggesting a swath in excess of 150 mm north and west of Dorian's track. Some districts have received large quantities of rain last week, and with the soil moisture still very high, excessive runoff may exacerbate the flooding potential. This combined with the severe winds may result in damage due to falling trees.

Rainfall warning for Western Nova Scotia, Western Prince Edward Island, extreme eastern and southern New Brunswick."

Wish us luck!

Todd I hope you have insurance on your new Garagemahall

As of 6pm Dorian has been upgraded to a Cat 2 Hurricane and is expected to stay as one at least until it reaches PEI. Sustained winds of 160 kmh (99mph) are expected. That's not good.

Either way it looks like you're gonna need a seat belt.

White caps in Mahone bay harbour, raining a bit, forecast for here is gusts over 150 and rain over 150mm possible in heavy pockets. Wind to pick up around 10 am, blow harder by 3 pm, over by 3 am.

It's raining fairly steady with light gusts- I'd say 50kmh. That'll change soon. My generator is ready to go. Our local Loblaws Superstore is planning for a 3 day closure. All meat was 50% off! That's all well and good if you can keep your freezers going for the duration.